Industry experts believe that India and Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Vietnam will drive world copper consumption growth in 2030.

Craig Lang, an analyst at the British Commodities Research Institute (CRU), predicted at the World Copper Conference (Asia) that from 2023 to 2028, the combined consumption of refined copper in Southeast Asia and India may account for 20% of the world and account for 20% of the long-term copper consumption. 60% of the demand increase.

India and Southeast Asia have a combined population of nearly 2 billion, and urbanization, investment in green energy transition and consumption growth will be the main factors driving copper consumption in these countries, he said.

Craig Lang predicts that the global refined copper market will have a small gap of 54,000 tons in 2024, a surplus in 2025-2026, and a shortage again in 2027 and 2028, when the gap will be close to 500,000 tons. However, whether a gap emerges next year will depend on the economic recovery in Western countries.

The London Metal Exchange copper futures price will rise from US$8,514/ton in 2023 to US$9,088/ton in 2024. Due to chronic shortages, copper prices will rise to $12,350/ton in 2028.

Motoki Makita, general manager of Mitsui & Co., predicted at this meeting that Southeast Asia's copper cathode consumption will more than double from 1.3 million tons last year to 2.8 million tons in 2030. In 2024, Thailand's copper consumption will reach 380,000 tons, Vietnam's demand may reach 305,000 tons, and Malaysia's demand is expected to reach 290,000 tons. Although India and Southeast Asian countries currently account for a very small share of copper consumption, they have large room for growth. However, the global copper market will be in surplus in 2024 and 2025 due to rising refined copper production. After copper supply peaks in 2026, there will be a shortage from 2027 to 2030.